What are the Odds?

A common argument toward the existence of a creator is one of probability. The development of life on our specific planet, it is argued, is so improbable that believing it just happened is ridiculous. To say nothing of life that is intelligent enough to calculate this probability in the first place. It cannot all just be a coincidence. There must be a divine hand involved.

The premise of this argument is a correct one. Life on earth is pretty unlikely. It would require a large list of conditions, only part of whom are: A relatively radiation free part of the galaxy; A medium sized sun; At least one planet which is at exactly the right distance from the sun to be at the right temperature; It should probably rotate, both around itself and its sun; And most of all, it would need to be there for long enough to develop life. And intelligent life at that. The odds are admittedly quite steep.

But when we come to think about it, we do inhabit a galaxy with around 400 billion suns. To say nothing of the many billions of other galaxies out there. And our sun has 8 planets orbiting it. If life existing on our planet (at long odds) is evidence for the existence of God, isn’t the lack of life on millions of other planets evidence against God?

What of the lottery? The odds of winning are exceedingly small, and yet, if enough people sign up a few will win. If the winner is a believer, he will likely consider that occasion as evidence for the existence of his God. Though he won by statistical probability alone. If we continue this line of reasoning, we should apply it to dice as well. Roll a six and God exists. Roll it enough times and you will get your evidence.

What would happen if the case were otherwise. Let us imagine a reality where our planet is much farther away from the sun. A frozen earth. A scenario where our world could never have supported life to begin with. If this were the case there would be no one alive to ask the question of God. Just like on Mars. No God supposed. No God needed.

The fact that we are here asking the question cannot be used as evidence for a divine creator, just as the fact that millions of other worlds hold no life on them at all is evidence against one. Imagine a pair of billion sided dice. And then throw them hundreds of billions of times. Would it be a miracle that you occasionally get a six? Would it be proof of God?

Of course not. In fact it would be probably be evidence if you didn’t.

Whenever we win against the odds it makes us feel special. We didn’t think we had a chance, but we did. A small chance. We should consider ourselves lucky. Not blessed.